Friday, June 25, 2010

2010 NBA Draft: BOOMS and BUSTS Ground Rules

I'm going to call it. For every player in the first round, I'm going to put myself out there and declare, right now, what the future holds or could likely hold for them. I base my opinion here on their college numbers, scouting info I have read, and interviews I have listened to. I'm going common sense here, rather than some sort of advanced metric or insider information. With this stuff, I think common sense can get you pretty far.
My judgements here are not relative to draft position nor are they particularly specific. I'm not about to say, "John Wall will play in exacty four all-star games and win league MVP twice." Nor am I even saying "John Wall will be a regular in the All-Star Game."

I am not making relative judgements. At a high level, players from the draft will play out their careers and will either be remembered as good players, or crappy players. For example, though limited in ability, Udonis Haslem will be remembered as a good player. Emeka Okafor, despite the tons of money he has been paid, numerous opportunities he has been given and the stats he has accumulated, will be remembered as a scrub. That's what I'm talking about. Scrub, or not a scrub.

I am giving myself a middle ground. There are some players that will be initial considered to be scrubs. They will fail in ther first opportunity. But, for whatever reason, on their second try, or third try, the right situation occurs and/or they figure "it" out. The ship is righted and they lose the scrub label. Recent examples are JJ Reddick and Shannon Brown. Adam Morrison is still a scrub, but he may get one more chance to change that perception.

TERMINOLOGY:
BOOM: A "boom" will quickly begin developing, improving, and generally adjusting to the NBA and the team owners in question will breath a sigh of relief within a few months of the draft.
IMMEDIATE BUST: An "immediate bust" will not succeed with his first  team (unless they stubbornly give him shot after shot over several years, which usually doesn't happen - The axe comes after about two years or whenever the rookie contract gives ownership an out). However, this player shows enough that a second team, a team where the player really seems to be a good fit, gives him a shot. It works, and the player turns it around and builds a career. Sometimes this can take a third or fourth team.
*FOREVER BUST: A "forever bust" is a player that doesn't belong in the NBA. Either not enough of a combination of talent and natural ability and/or lacking the mentality to be productive with the assets they have. This player fails with the first team. He may get additional chances but will fail in them too. There is usually a mental component to forever busts, because few true scrubs are drafted high, especiaslly in 2010.

* I love this term :)

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