2010 Playoffs: Magic (2) versus Celtics (4) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

Rondo versus Jameer; Garnett versus Lewis; Howard versus Perkins; Carter versus Allen; Pierce versus Barnes. Any of these matchups could turn this series. The Celtics will not be able to defend one guy and let the rest of the opposing team beat them. Nelson, Howard or Carter could be the difference in any given game. Orlando has the same problem. Rondo, Garnett or Allen could turn any given game in the Celtics' favor. I left out Pierce because he has been inefficient in his scoring this post-season. But that could turn around for him.

I expect the Celtics to initially scheme against Jameer Nelson, and try to get the ball out of his hands. That will leave Carter with the responsibility of running the offense and making the right decisions. It sounds worse than it is. With one exception, Carter has performed well in the post-season, though with limited success.

On the other hand, I expect Orlando to play the Celtics straight, with Nelson on Rondo, and see how effective that is. And that's the question. Can Rondo reck havok with Orlando's defense as he did with the Cavaliers'? And if so, will Orlando cheat off Allen and/or Pierce as an adjustment?

I think SVG (Stan Van Gundy) plays him straight, even if he plays well. And as good as Rondo is, I don't think he beats the Magic.

Another X-Factor is whether Howard can stay out of foul trouble. But Gortat is a solid back-up. I don't think this is the difference, despite the possible loss of Howard's defense for some stretches.

Prediction: Magic in 7

If the Celtics can get up 3-2 going back to Boston, they'll win the series. But I think the Magic go up 3-2 going into game 6, lose that game, and then win game 7 at home.

I listed the odds as even because every game will be close, and a loss by either team at home could be crucial. Boston gets to play more physically at home and will be much more difficult to beat there. But Orlando is a good road team and Boston has already lost at home this post-season.

2010 Playoffs: Celtics @ Cavaliers, Game 5

• Shocking passiveness by LeBron during large chunks of the game. During the first half 16-0 run by Boston, LeBron took, I think, one shot (the run got to 8-0 before LeBron was put into the game to staunch the bleeding). Generally speaking, LeBron may have felt like he needed to get the team involved early in the game, but he wasn't even moving around to divert attention or penetrating and dishing. He spent many possessions standing around on the perimeter. And once the team started to struggle, his response was slow and tenative. As many others have pointed out, LeBron has the terrible habit of settling for jumpshots when he is frustrated/not playign well. This is exactly the wrong this to do.
• Terrible offensive game plan by Mike Brown. First, I assume that it was his schemes that put LeBron on the perimeter, thirty feet from the basket. Against poor defenses, LeBron can dominate getting the ball out there. But Boston has one of the best perimeter defenses, one built to stop dribble penetration. Brown clearly has not adjusted for this. Second, wither JJ HIckson? In the minutes he has gotten in this series, Hickson has been effective. Yet he has been given almost no run in the last two Cavs losses. The Hickson-Jamison-James frontcourt has been very effective this year for the Cavs. Why aren't the Cavs pushing the tempo against a much older to team whose best players have diminished endurance? Third, Brown's love affair with Shaq-in-the-low-post sometimes produces results (as in this game) but it always clogs up the lane and slows down the game's tempo (both of which favor the Celtics' defensive scheme - you know they hope Brown continues this). Has Brown so quickly forgotten how effective his team was when Shaq was injured?
• Another bad game from Mo Williams. Lots of badly timed shots. Takes touches away (at the worst time) from LeBron on offense. Williams seems to be a bad fit to play with LeBron.
• Masterful shooting by Ray Allen. His first three pointer after the half was bananas. A catch and shoot from the corner that had no business going in.
• With his teammates playing well early, Rondo, to his credit, didn't force anything, despite all of the talk after last game. Maybe LeBron felt the same way (even though it wasn't necessarily true?). Rondo turned it on in the second half, making a big difference while putting up his numbers.
• Pierce got a break defending LeBron in the first half. LeBron spent a ton of time standing around, which gave Pierce a breather on the defensive end and therefore more energy on the offensive end.
• Pierce ended up with 21 points, but he still isn't shooting well. It took him 21 shots. Good all around game though. Led his team in rebounds.
• Garnett was money early. He hit jay after jay over Jamison. Jamison isn't the type of physical defender that would give Garnett problems. His defense is average at best and non-aggressive. Varejao is better suited to play against Garnett.
• By the way, LeBron didn't defend Rondo much in the game, despite the talk to the contrary.

Orlando Magic (2) versus Atlanta Hawks (3) Preview

Upset Odds: 10:1

Pretty high odds for a 2 versus 3 seed, huh? Well, let's run through it. Orlando has homecourt advantage. Last year, Orlando didn't protect homecourt particularly well. But the Hawks are unlikely to take advantage of that because of how bad a road team they are.

Dwight Howard is a big matchup problem for the Hawks. However, if Horford can make some jumpers, maybe he can pull Howard away fromt he basket to limit his effectiveness on defense. Or, perhaps Horford and Josh Smith could get Howard in foul trouble. Howard has not had a good post-season yet. Now's the time for him to get it going on offense. It's a good matchup for that. He doesn't want to go into the next series cold against Shaq/Hickson/Varejao or Perkins/Garnett/Davis.

Jameer Nelson has been looking good this post-season. He's the clear leader of the offense. It goes how he goes. Will the Hawks leave Bibby, his counter-part, on him, or match him up with a bigger guard like Joe Johnson, as they did with Jennings?

Rashard Lewis could break the back of the Hawks, if Josh Smith leaves him open or otherwise gives him good looks. I'll be watching Smith to see how he deals with this defensive challenge.

Vince Carter looks the part of marginal role-player on this Orlando team. He's taking tons of shots, but not connecting at a good percentage. 1 for 17 from behind the arc doesn't cut it.

I've spent this post talking about the Magic because their performance will be the story of the series. They had a relatively easy first round opponent with a giant achilles heel (inability to score). Now, they face a legitimate playoff team that can score and defend, at least at times. I really don't like the Hawks in this series because they are an unfocused, undiciplined team filled with almost-stars. Joe Johnson, who wants and will almost surely get a max salary contract this summer, has not shown me that he can be the best player on a champion. Didn't he foul out of one of his first round series games with several minutes to go?

Prediction: Magic in 6

The Hawks will fall assbackwards into some wins, but Orlando wraps it up in Atlanta.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Suns (3) versus Spurs (7) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

With their amazing upset of the Mavs, the Spurs really want to make you believe in them. But going up against the Suns and their homecourt advantage, can we?

What's the key matchup? Hard to say. Tempting to say Duncan and Stoudemire, but I think that while Amare' has the young legs, Duncan is wily and smart. Amare's PER will be higher, but Duncan will keep it from getting out of hand. Nash and Parker/Hill duo? I think both sides of this equation will do damage. Hill may be able to hinder Nash's effectiveness, but I doubt significantly. I think the key is Richardson/Ginobili. If Richardson plays well: shoots well; attacks the basket; defends Ginobili competently, then the Suns win this series. The Spurs need one thing in particular from Ginobili: scoring. The Spurs need to keep up a prolific scoring team. Ginobili and Parker will be critical to that endevour(spelled wrong, I know).
The other key matchup is Coach Pop versus Coach Gentry. Popovich is going to throw some adjustments at Gentry and Gentry has to counter effectively or his team will suffer.
Frye and Jared Dudley, who were x-factors int he Blazers series, will be less effective here, against the well coached, experienced Spurs.

Neither team strong compels an endorsement from me. Each has their strengths. The series will swing wildly from one game to the next. The Suns' homecourt advantage may actually hurt them as they will likely drop game 1 or game 2 and need to steal one back in Texas.
I'm going with Coaching/Champion-Experience but it may be a sucker bet in this case. The Suns could very well run the Spurs out of the gym.
Spurs in 6

Spurs steal a game early and then protect home court. If I had picked the Suns, I would have said Suns in 7 with everybody protecting homecourt.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Celtics/Cavs Game 1 (Cavs win)

• Celtics really blew it. Not just the game; I think that was their best chance to win this series. They have the matchups to keep it close, so it isn't over. But the Cavs won't lose game 2 after this scare, and then the pressure will be on the Celtics to keep it a series by winning at home. LeBron may smell blood and release a monster game to steal game 3 or 4. Its funny. Just an above average LeBron game, such as his performance in this game (35 pts on 25 shots; 7 rbs; 7 assists; dominant 4th quarter), is spectacular. So you have to keep that in perspective.  A "monster" game may not even be necessary to steal one in Boston if his teammates play well. 
• I thought Kendrick Perkins was big. O'Neal dwarfs him. And Shaq schooled him, too. Kendrick, stay at home. Make Shaq shoot over you.
• The Celtics' big four played well early, but faded down the stretch. Pierce, in particular, attacked at the start, with a chip on his shoulder. He was effective, then his game went sour. I was shocked to see that he ended up with only 13 points on 17 shots.
• Rasheed Wallace looked terrible. Just terrible.
• Strong game by Garnett. How many of those does he have in him? The Celtics need them.
• Rondo ended up four rebounds shy a triple double. But like his teammates, the best part of his game was the first half.
• Mo Williams' third quarter explosion may have saved the game for the Cavs. Boston continued to let him shoot after he got hot. Adjustment-FAIL.
• JJ Hickson, whom the commentators made a point of saying had not gotten much run in the previous series, got some run here and made the most of it, out-playing Jamison and Shaq. I think he got PT because Shaq got in foul trouble.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Lakers/Thunder Game 6 (Lakers win series)

• This was a seven game series disgused as a six game series. Somebody boxes out Gasol, the Lakers lose this game. Ibaka and Collison are the goats here.
• I love how everybody on the Thunder was so sure Kobe's shot is going in that they didn't box out. Gasol kept playing and got the game winning put-back with an easy look. It's like Kobe's the boogie man.
• Notch up another strong series-closing performance for Kobe Bryant. How mny of those does he have?
• As a Lakers fan, I gasp every time I see Ron Artest take a three point shot. I did in this game, on his shot with about a minute left in the fourth, and he was beyond wide open. It wasn't even close. Kobe was screaming and waving his hands for the ball as he was open on the wing. Artest didn't even look in his direction. I can laugh about it now because the Lakers won.
• Artest did an excellent job on Durant over the series. Durant may be the best scorer in the NBA now, but Artest made him expend a ton of energy and struggle at times. Despite Artest's offensive woes, it makes me wonder if the Lakers would have won the series with Ariza. For over a month, I've felt that the Lakers made a mistake with the Ariza, Artest swap. Not sure now. Will Artest continue to make a difference, or was this the highlight of his post season? His other best matchup, Carmelo, is going home for the summer.
• Loved Durant's heart. It was a tough game for him but he kept fighting.
• What a home-cooked series. Every Thunder home game, they have a massive FT advantage. Every Laker home game, the FTs are about even.

The NBA MVP Award: Why I Shouldn't Care

Lebron James is now the two-time NBA MVP. He deserves it unequivocally and I agree with ESPN's The Sports Guy (TSG) that it should have been unanimous. That's reason number 1 that I shouldn't care about the NBA MVP race every year. Every other reasonable candidate (non-center i.e. not D. Howard) could be replaced with LeBron and their team would become better. The toughest replace might be Wade, I think. LeBron's passing talent would be wasted on Wade's sh$$ty teammates. Here are some additional reasons why I shouldn't care about the NBA MVP Award:

• Wade, who has done for the second year straight what Nash did in 2006 (take a terrible team to the playoffs), was a non-factor in the MVP race. He was fifth, but waaay behind fourth place, D. Howard. Out of 123 ballots (each allows you to rank your top five), Wade's name only made it on to 51. That means 72 voters did not think he was one of the top 5 most valuable players in the L.
• Stephen Jackson got a fifth place vote (credit to TSG for this one).
• Carmelo Anthony got a second place vote ahead of Wade, Kobe and D. Howard (although it could be one of the three voters that gave D. Howard first place votes).
• Amare Stoudemire got three votes (fourth 2x and a fifth).
• Chris Bosh got a fifth place vote.
• Lack of post-season experience, not to mention success, doesn't matter. He's an awesome scorer that did himself and his team proud this post-season, but Kevin Durant hadn't played a single post-season game when the votes came in and he had the second highest voting points total. This includes 4 number 1 votes over LeBron James.
• Steve Nash got 49 voting points to Deron Williams' 7.

I wonder: if LeBron flames out again this year, and then averages a triple-double next year during the regular season, will he win MVP again? One thing that most back-to-back MVPs have had up until now: a championship ring before the second MVP award*. The exception are notable. LeBron joins the non-ring club with Steve Nash, Wilt (who got his first ring that Spring), Moses Malone (who also got his that Spring). With the exception of Nash, the no-ring back-to-backers were on teams with dominant regular season performances and high post-season expectations. Nash's Suns did much better than expected during the season (which is why he won), but only moderately well (3rd seed; 9 games off the first seed)**.

* Magic had 5 rings, Bird 2, Russell 4, Kareem 1, Jordan 1, Duncan 1

** To their credit, that 2006 Suns team got the conference finals, past Kobe's urregulars and the forever cursed Clippers.

2010 Playoffs: Lakers (1) versus Jazz (5) Preview

Upset Odds: 5:1

The big question in this series is whether the Lakers' D can prevent the easy baskets that the Jazz offense, run exceptionally well by Deron Williams, creates. It sunk the Nuggets with their undiciplined ways. The Lakers have an aggressive defensive rotation. If they don't hustle and play with a lot of energy, it breaks down and gives inferior offenses easy baskets. Will Fisher/Farmar be able to keep Deron away from the basket? Like the Thunder series, Kobe has an advantagious matchup at shooting guard. However, if he has to chase Deron, he'll have less energy at the other end of the floor. Boozer versus Gasol is an interesting contrast in styles. They do not match up well. Which will better take advantage of the mis-match at the offensive end? A big question for Utah is whether their young center can hang with Bynum. Personally, I am unsure how advantageous the matchup ultimately will be for the Lakers. This series will be closer than it should be, and I would not be shocked by an upset. Why? The Jazz are playin gto their potential. The effort is there and  they know how they win. The Lakers are not playing to their potential. They don't always bring the effort (hasn't been too bad though) and they win in fundamentally different ways from game to game. They're a great team on shaky ground.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

I do not think the Lakers will win game 6 in SLC, unless they are down 2-3 and desperate. The Lakers need to take the series by game 5 or there will be a game 7. I predict both teams protect homecourt to take it to seven games.

2010 Playoffs: Cavaliers (1) versus Celtics (4) Preview

Upset Odds: 8:1

I didn't give the Celtics enough credit in the first round (or did I giuve the Heat too much...no, too little to Celtics). Will I gave them too much here? The Celtics match up with the Cavs pretty well. Pierce will do a solid job on LeBron defensively, as good as anyone can. He may even get LeBron in foul trouble with a few flops. Garnett has slowed because of his injury, but his tenacity and experience will aid him against Jamison. If Rondo plays well, he can hang with Mo Williams. The Perkins-O'Neal matchup will be interesting. O'Neal's veteran guile may be the difference. On the other hand, LeBron is playing out of his mind, somehow improving on his already ridiculous regular season stats. He has had some offensive duds (maybe just one, I don't remember) this post-season, which gives the Celtics hope. But LeBron could prematurely end this series with big game or two in Boston. Also, the Celtics bench is weak sauce, esp. compared to the Cavs bench. If the series stretches on, big minutes may catch up with the "big three".
Prediction: Cavs in 6

The Celtics hold serve in games three and four and then drop two straight after the Cavs get it together. Or, the Celtics steal one and then the Cavs steal one back. Either way, a 2-2 series after 4 games, then the Cavs take charge.