Free Agency Update: Artest to Lakers

It has now been widely reported (including twitters by the player himself) that Ron Artest will sign with the Lakers.

The Deal - Reportedly, it is a three year deal worth about 18 million. I've also heard that it's the Mid-Level Exception, about $5.9 million per, for anywhere from 3 to 5 years.

The Lakers' Free Agency Picture - The Lakers have a new starting SF, and Trever Ariza will not be a Laker next year. Somebody else will have the honor for overpaying him based on potential and a strong play-off run. Houston is an early candidate. Also, the Laker's have the money resign Odom for around $10 million, since they won't be overpaying Ariza and they didn't give Artest too much. If Odom really wants to stay, he'll get a reasonable offer to.

The NBA's Free Agency Picture - The Lakers have upped the ante for the 2009-2010 season. The contenders (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio, Denver, Portland, Dallas maybe) may feel pressure to makes moves to keep pace. Ariza hops onto the open market in earnest and could see a considerable payday. I wouldn't be shocked to see him get 5 years, $50 million. The non-contenders may (should) feel even more dis-heartened and really look ahead to next year's free-agency period and 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Was It A Good Deal for the Lakers? - From a talent stand-point, it's a steal. Artest does most of what Ariza did (outside shooting, man to man defense) and some things better (rebounding, overall scoring ability). Ariza is much younger, and much faster but not as good overall right now. On the other hand, by making this deal, the Laker's have upset the chemistry of the team. Win or lose, this is a different Laker team. There is risk for anybody by not standing pat on the roster that got you the 'chip. Artest's nature (personality, aggresive play-style) only exacerbates that risk to the chemistry. Then again, coaching Artest might be an incentive for Phil Jackson to coach another year.

The Inside Scoop - Ariza's agent is David Lee, the guy that got the Lakers to give Bynum that 4-year, $57 million contract that they are regreting right now (and asked for even more). I doubt the Buss family relished the idea of playing tug-o-war with Lee in order to ultimately over-pay one of his clients.

Signing Grade - (B+)

NBA Free Agency Period Preview - Summer 2009

Summertime is here, and with it, another NBA off-season begins. NBA GMs find money / cap room burning a hole in their pocket and every free agent waits by the fax machine for the offers to roll in. In this preview, I'm going to take a look at the usual suspects i.e. this year's free agency crop. As there are over a hundred free agents, I decided to create some categories of free agents and discuss them in those groups.

Will Make His Team Pay - These guys aren't likely to be going anywhere because they are a good fit with their team, the fans love them, and the teams in question recognize these facts. Also, the player likes where he is and is willing to take a littel less to stay there. The Lakers have two of these guys, Kobe Bryant and Trever Ariza. I debated putting Lamar Odom in this category, but, despite his talent, he isn't a great fit and the fans have mixed feelings, to put it simply. Kobe will get every dime he asks for, and Ariza has the leverage to be paid at a premium. The Lakers need to offer Ariza a decent amount, at least 6+ million so as to not insult him. However, they must be careful not to overpay him. I think they settle at about 8 million per, which is a premium but reasonable. I'm putting Jason Kidd here because he is a very good fit with Dallas and I think well liked. However, Kidd is shopping himself around to push his price up as this will be his last major contract. I wonder if Cuban will play hardball like he did with Steve Nash? Kidd will get offered about 8 million per, but if I have under-estimated his greed and over-estimated his desire to play for a winner, he could end up in the next category making 10+ million on a bad team.

Will Be Overpaid - These guys are selling themselves to the highest bidder, and they have just enough talent (or HYPE) for somebody to overpay them. Hedu Turkoglu is the only guy in this group that is actually worth overpaying to pull away from his team. He proved that he can be the closer for a championship-caliber team and play physical, if not fleet-footed defense. A fair price for his skills is maybe 12 million per, but he'll get 14 million per to leave Orlando. Ben Gordon is a hot and cold gunner that pushed his stock up with big shots in the Boston series. However, he hasn't proven that he is dependable but somebody will give him 10+ million to launch a ton of shots for them. He isn't worth it. Chris Anderson is another guy that pushed his stock up with some big plays in the play-offs. But that doesn't change the one-dimensional nature of his game. At best, he's a seventh man that should make maybe 2 million per. But somebody is going to give him 5+ million per. Glen "Big Baby" Davis also had an excellent play-offs in 2009, filling in for the injured Garnett. My opinion, however, is that he is immature and when overpaid and removed from that environment that he flurished in, he will turn into Oliver Miller. Somebody will give him 8-10 million per, when he is actually a big risk. Carlos Boozer has elected to wait until next year for free agency. I'm sure somebody will overpay for him then. Why do you think he waited?

Will Make You Regret Signing Them - These guys should be avoided at all cost. If your team employs them, cut them. Don't pay them a dime. They aren't as good as they used to be but they still have all of the baggage. They are Rasheed Wallace (uncoachable), Shawn Marion (premadonna that doesn't care about winning), Allen Iverson (uncoachable), Ricky Davis (knucklehead), Ron Artest (uncoachable), Stephon Marbury (bad guy), and Chris Wilcox (knucklehead). Ron Artest may work out on the right team, with the right coach and right players to reign him in, but those teams (Boston, LA Lakers) can't afford him.

Ran out of time on this post. I will be posting comments as deals are made.

The NBA Finals 2009: Quick Thoughts

• The lynchpin of the series, to me, is Andrew Bynum. If he can keep D. Howard from dominating the offensive boards (or the scoreboard) when he is in the game, LA can play single coverage and stay on Orlando's shooters. If LA has to double down low or feels pressure to collapse the defense into the paint, Orlando could shoot their way to a chip.
• By the way, Orlando has been shooting the ball out of their minds. If Orlando shoots as well in the Finals as they did against the Cavs, they could win it all, even if Howard isn't spectacular. On the other hand, if they fall back to earth shooting wise, then Howard will need to be their Superman.
• The Rashard Lewis, Gasol match-up is big, but secondary to the above issue. I think Rashard will have a good series but that, in of itself, isn't a problem. It's the entire magic team getting open looks and shooting 40% plus from 3 point land.
• I think Turkoglu is a bigger IF for the series than Lewis. He is the Magic's Lamar Odom. Not because he is a candy fiend / general space-cadet like Odom but because he is defensible and not particularly assertive. As a Laker fan, I want Kobe/Ariza on him most of the night. I think he'll give Odom trouble. Odom will fall for his fakes and get flat-footed.
• This is going to be a weird series. Both teams are great road teams. Neither is a great home team either (I'd give Orlando the edge though). Expect a greater than average number of road wins.
• This series is close enough that I'd be seriously tempted to pick the Magic if they had home court. however, they don't so...
• MY PREDICTION: Lakers in six or seven. It will be a MUCH easier series for the Lakers if they win game 1. They lose game 1, I think it goes seven (unless Orlando collapses like the Nuggets did). If they win game 1, Lakers win in six or less.

Lakers / Rockets Game 3: Artest Ejected Again!

Is he going to set a record for ejections in a series?

Initially, this ejection looked very questionable. It looked like the refs saw Gasol fall and made the Flagrant two call based on that. The commentators themselves expressed serious doubt.

But watch the video and look at Ron Artest's off-arm, the left arm. His right arm is going after the ball (though in a wild swing, which have been called flagrant) and gets some ball with his right hand. But Ron's left arm delivers a shove to Gasol's right shoulder that has nothing to do with making a play on the ball.

You have to watch a few times because of the tangle of bodies. But Artest wasn't just going for the ball or trying to make a play.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwtQpIjbHYU

Lakers / Rockets Game 2 Note: Kobe's Elbow

I love how nobody cares to examine what happened right before the elbow was thrown (and Kobe did intentionally throw it out, though not necessarily at Ron's neck - Ron is taller than Kobe, he would have expected it to hit Ron in the chest). If you did look, you would have seen Ron Artest put his hand on the back of Kobe's neck and bend him forward. Both actions were wrong, but I wanted to point out the one nobody is talking about.

The video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irtnkEmubqY

Another Gut-Check Game: Nuggets @ Dallas (Game 3)

The series moves to Dallas, with the home team facing an 0-3 hole, something only overcome once or twice in NBA history.

You could almost call it a must-win game for Dallas, but it is, at the very least, a gut-check for the Mavericks. Show up, or get ready for the off-season.

Lakers / Rockets Game 2

My Thoughts:

1. This is the best Kobe play-off performance I have seen in the last two years. He may have had other, statistically better games, but this was him at his lethal best. How many times can he do it, in this series and in the play-offs?

2. When did Ron-Ron turn into Ray Allen?!?

3. Fisher's shoulder-charge on Scola was a cheap shot. Moving picks are a serious problem in the NBA, and Scola's sometimes very questionable picks obviously got Fisher's blood boiling. But there is no excuse for that shot.

4. I don't think Artest was going to hit Kobe, but was merely trying to intimidate him. Unfortunately for Artest, he intimidated the refs and they tossed him. After the Fisher incident, they weren't going to wait for another. Also, Artest did initiate contact with Kobe. In a vacuum, that wouldn't get you ejected. But Artest has started fights with fans. He has a well earned reputation for crazy.

5. I think Artest's actions showed Kobe that he's in his head. I expect Kobe to try to push Artest further, as Artest is the linch pin of his team.

6. Fisher wasn't ejected but I think he won't play in game 3. Artest was ejected, but he'll be back in game 3. And I do think the Lakers may be better off without Fisher.

7. Gasol gave Yao fits, getting him in foul trouble and out of the game. If this continues, the series is over.

8. This series is probably going seven games, and I don't know anymore who is going to win it...

Phrase of the Day: "Gut-Check Game"

A gut check game is a non-elimination play-off game in which a team must show up in a big way or it is clear the series is over. They don't have to actually win (that would be a "Must-Win Game", but they must demonstrate their strong desire to win (if they have one).

The Boston and LA games tonight were gut-check games. Each team had lost their series opener, at home, forfeiting home court advantage. A second loss would mean going on the road for two games down 0-2. The reality is that such a series deficit has been overcome before. But the response of a team facing such a situation is indicative of their will to win (and their capability to). As it turned out, both teams came through, showing intensity and determination in victory.

"Must-Win Games" are a type of gut-check game. But there are also games like these, which are neither must-win nor elimination but are very telling of a team's capability to win a series.