Wednesday, May 2, 2012

2012 NBA Playoffs Clippers vs Grizzlies Game 2 (4th Q Only)

Final Score: Grizzles win, 105-98

The final quarter began with the Clippers down 6 to the Grizzlies (69-75). The Grizzlies pushed the lead up several times but the Clippers responded to keep things from getting out of hand. The Grizzles got the lead up to 13 with about 4 minutes left. But the Clippers didn't quit. They cut it back down to single digits.

Observations
-OJ Mayo was the MVP of the fourth quarter for the Grizzlies, nailing several big shots. He was on fire early, cooling off late in the quarter.
-Conley also played well, mixing solid defense with timely offensive aggression all while running the show.
-Chris Paul combined moments of brilliance with ugly possessions I'm sure he'd like to have back. He played physical and even a bit angry.
-Mo Williams' scoring was big in keeping Clips in the game early in the fourth.
-Kenyon Martin was totally worthless on offense. He was presented with several windows to attack the basket or take an open jumper and passed on all of them. I don't know if he is unable to take advantage, or just not empowered by the team to do so.
-Around four minutes to go, down eleven, the Clippers inserted Bobby Simmons into the game?!? Mind you, CP3 and Griffin are still out there, so Coach Del Negro hadn't given up yet. I was dumbfounded. Simmons scored five points in less than 2 minutes, shutting me the f--- up. He had 7 for the quarter.
-DeAndre Jordan's 4th quarter contribution: 1 TO in about 3 minutes of action.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

2012 NBA Playoffs Magic @ Pacers Game 2 (4th Q Only)

Final Score: Pacers ran away with a 93-78 win.

The 4th quarter started with the Pacers holding a comfortable double digit lead. For most of the quarter, the lead fluxuated between 15 and 10, but the Magic could never get enough stops in a row to seriously dent the lead.

The Magic probably can't win with 2 points from Jameer Nelson. That's what he had contributed coming into the 4th. With Howard out, you'd have to say he's their best player now, right? To Jameer's credit, he quickly improved that scoring total once Van Gundy put him into the game in the 4th and Jameer gave his team an immediate spark. J Rich hurt his thumb early in the game and was in-effective, scoring 2 for the game. Big Baby scored well in the first half, but did not score much in the second.

It looks like Ryan Anderson continued to have trouble with David West in game 2. Anderson picked up his fifth foul early in the fourth and was getting immediate double team help when West got the ball in the low post. West had good scoring and rebounding numbers coming into the 4th, and continued to play well in multiple facets. West may have very well have been been the mvp of the game for the Pacers.

Paul George looked very good in the 4th quarter.

2012 NBA Playoffs Knicks @ Heat Game 2 (4th Q Only)

Final Score: Heat win 104-94 (and it wasn't quite that close)

I may not watch another minute of this series. I don't think the Knicks will win a game, not even the game 4 "Pride" game with the Heat up 3-0. Previous playoff campaigns exposed the serious flaws in Carmelo and Amar'e's respective games. The flaws are still there, the biggest of which being their low basketball IQs. A winning team can't have two guys that make as many bad offensive and defensive decisions as they both make. Throw in Baron Davis' occasional chucking and how does this bunch of guys ever beat anybody any good in the playoffs 4 out of 7 times?

Now that I got that off my chest, here is what little I have to say about this game's final quarter.

The Knicks' offense continued to be predictable and sloppy. The Heat were all over them. Carmelo mostly stunk. The Knicks entered the quarter down nine. They never really got any closer than that. Wide open threes made by Heat role-players Battier and Chalmers put the breaks on a Knicks fourth quarter push.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

2012 NBA Playoffs: Orlando @ Pacers, Game 1

Result: Magic win, 80-77

Mentally, I had written off the Howard-less Magic in this series. But, as it turns out, the Pacers may not be the best team to exploit Dwight Howard's absence, especially when they settle for jump shots so often (negating his absence in the middle). And strangely enough, Big Baby has turned out to be a tough matchup for Hibbert despite the huge height discrepancy.

Ultimately, the Pacers collectively choked the game away (special points to Granger though), but I still favor them for the series. They still look like the better team.

Observations
-The Pacers did a terrible job defending the pick and roll with Jameer Nelson (w/ an other Magic but especially Big Baby). Nelson had tons of room to run around in the half court as George Hill was crushed by picks over and over again.
-The Magic did a great job keeping the Pacers out of the paint for much of the game
-The Pacers did kick up their defensive intensity in the second half. Thta reminded me of the Pacers that gave the Bulls so much trouble last year.
-Big Baby did a great job denying position against Hibbert. Hibbert has a huge size advantage but can't take advantage of it in the low post if he can't get the ball. Hibbert has almost all of his scoring success on second chance shots.
-Hibbert has great body control on his shot block attempts, although he got some no-call home cooking too.
-David West looked good in the low post and is a tough cover for a seemingly over-matched Ryan Anderson.
-I love watching Hansburough (sp?) play. He just gives it everything he's got and plays with exuberance and confidence.
-Collison flat out looked better than George Hill (the Pacers' staring PG). Indeed, in crunch time, Collison was carried over from the second team to play out the fourth quarter.
-With 1:14 left in the game, and up 2, Granger ganked two FTs. On the next possession, Granger missed a close-range shot that was tough but make-able. Later, down three, Granger travels (TRAVELS!) while covered by Big Baby, effectively ending the game without even getting a shot off.

(in order of importance)
Most Valuable Magic: Nelson, Glen "Big Baby" Davis, Jason Richardson
Most Valuable Pacers: West, Granger (yeah, he ultimately blew it, but he was critical early), Hibbert

Starting Goat(s): Hill (Pacers), Ryan Anderson (Magic)

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

The 2011 Finals: Prediction

I wanted to make my prediction after doing my Finals preview, but tip-off is in one half hour. So, instead, I will make my prediction now with the basic reasons why. The preview will follow, probably posted after tip-off but before I've seen any of the game.

My pick is the Miami Heat, in six games. They will return to Miami for games 6 and 7 up 3-2 with two days rest. Loose and rested, they will take care of business at home.

The Dallas Mavericks could win because of their sophisticated offense that produces good looks for the role players and puts Nowitzki in spots he likes on the floor. And, their man-zone hybrid is well suited for a dribble penetration team like the Heat as long as Chandler anchors at center. Dallas is good enough to be the Heat (they did win both regular season games).

Each side has exploitable matchups, which I will go into further int he next post.

The Miami Heat will win the series because they have 2 of the best 3 players (and closers) on the floor. They have a strong team defense concept as well as some strong individual stoppers (several people to throw at Dirk, including LeBron and Haslem). Their offense still has chemistry issues, but it does create good shots for the Heat stars fairly often. Lastly, the Heat have home court advantage, which is particularly valuable in the Finals because of the 2-3-2 format. Home court advantage is also particularly useful this year because the Mavs' middle three games are played only a day apart (Sun-Tues-Thurs). If the Mavs don't win all three, they have to beat the Heat twice at home. The Heat have been threatened at home this post season, but have not lost a game.

These NBA Finals feel like a game of inches. A few big shots here or there could make the difference in any one game. And any one game could change the complexion of the series. Game 1 is a great opportunity for the Mavericks to steal, because their offense can be difficult to adjust to as it comes at you from so many different angles and utilizes such a variety of weapons. I expect the Mavericks to pick up an early lead and for the Heat to have to work from behind to win the game.

Friday, June 25, 2010

2010 NBA Draft: BOOMS and BUSTS Ground Rules

I'm going to call it. For every player in the first round, I'm going to put myself out there and declare, right now, what the future holds or could likely hold for them. I base my opinion here on their college numbers, scouting info I have read, and interviews I have listened to. I'm going common sense here, rather than some sort of advanced metric or insider information. With this stuff, I think common sense can get you pretty far.
My judgements here are not relative to draft position nor are they particularly specific. I'm not about to say, "John Wall will play in exacty four all-star games and win league MVP twice." Nor am I even saying "John Wall will be a regular in the All-Star Game."

I am not making relative judgements. At a high level, players from the draft will play out their careers and will either be remembered as good players, or crappy players. For example, though limited in ability, Udonis Haslem will be remembered as a good player. Emeka Okafor, despite the tons of money he has been paid, numerous opportunities he has been given and the stats he has accumulated, will be remembered as a scrub. That's what I'm talking about. Scrub, or not a scrub.

I am giving myself a middle ground. There are some players that will be initial considered to be scrubs. They will fail in ther first opportunity. But, for whatever reason, on their second try, or third try, the right situation occurs and/or they figure "it" out. The ship is righted and they lose the scrub label. Recent examples are JJ Reddick and Shannon Brown. Adam Morrison is still a scrub, but he may get one more chance to change that perception.

TERMINOLOGY:
BOOM: A "boom" will quickly begin developing, improving, and generally adjusting to the NBA and the team owners in question will breath a sigh of relief within a few months of the draft.
IMMEDIATE BUST: An "immediate bust" will not succeed with his first  team (unless they stubbornly give him shot after shot over several years, which usually doesn't happen - The axe comes after about two years or whenever the rookie contract gives ownership an out). However, this player shows enough that a second team, a team where the player really seems to be a good fit, gives him a shot. It works, and the player turns it around and builds a career. Sometimes this can take a third or fourth team.
*FOREVER BUST: A "forever bust" is a player that doesn't belong in the NBA. Either not enough of a combination of talent and natural ability and/or lacking the mentality to be productive with the assets they have. This player fails with the first team. He may get additional chances but will fail in them too. There is usually a mental component to forever busts, because few true scrubs are drafted high, especiaslly in 2010.

* I love this term :)

2010 NBA Playoffs: Jazz/Lakers Game 1 (Lakers win)

  • Kobe and Gasol both give B+ games
  • Lakers second team blows lead
  • Boozer is a solid second banana, but is it "contract year thunder"?
  • Kobe's 4th quarter is a classic
  • Terrible ref-ing; Not just pro-Lakers as Gasol got absolutely mugged by Boozer late in the fourth