2010 Playoffs: Day 2 Thoughts

Thunder/Lakers Game 1:

• I saw most of this game. However, I watched most of the first half after having seen the second half.
• Durant is getting superstar calls. Artest was flagged for at least two that were closer to steals than fouls.
• Durant did not have a very good game. He did not shoot well. Yet he still had over twenty points. Same story for Kobe.
• Overall, Artest did a solid job defending Durant. A lot of Durant's troubles were probably playoff jitters, but Artest stayed with him and played him tough. Didn't make things easy.
• Despite taking his normal number of shots, Kobe seemed hesitant to take shots for stretches of the game. He dribbled about, trying to draw attention to himself, but not taking advantage of the looks he was being given. Having said that, near the end of the game, with the Lakers nursing just a four point lead, Kobe took one of his heavily contested "hero" shots. It missed and it wasn't particularly close. It was a blemish on an otherwise solid crutch time performance.
• Shannon Brown made some nice shots. The Lakers are going to need him.
• Russell Westbrook was the bright spot of an otherwise dim Thunder performance. Westbrook has to exploit the woeful Laker PG defense for the Thunder to win this series.
• The Thunder need better performances from Durant and Jeff Green to have a chance. Green needs to be much better.
• I was wondering why James Harden wasn't starting the game for the Thunder. Then I saw him play.

Trail Blazers/Suns Game 1:

• I watched a lot of the second half, including the nail biting conclusion. Quite enjoyable.
• LaMarcus Aldridge is the key to the Blazers' success. He's the best weapon in their arsonal (without Roy), the man Miller needs to feed "early and often". He had some good moments late and got the better of Stoudamire several times.
• Speaking of Stoudamire, he's bringing the fiery, explosive version of himself that can be so impressive. But his game is still primarily instinctual and he sometimes misses the little things that can be so big, like boxing out. His failure to keep tabs on Aldridge late hurt the Suns late int he game. 
• I did not like Nash's last shot. I guess he thought it was the best one he could get. Watch him dribble down court, I knew he was going to take it.

Spurs/Mavericks Game 1:

• I watched bits and pieces and some of the fourth quarter. I have the game on TiVo. I may try to watch a bit more of it.
• Dirk was absolute money from the field and the line. I criticize Dirk for what he doesn't do well. But there is no doubt that what he does well, he does very well (shoot).
• Kidd does that thing that great players do. He keeps on working at his game, no matter his age. His three point shot is the latest example.

Magic/Bobcats Game 1:

• I starting watching when the game stated, until I got tired of watching the Bobcats try to score. I think I lasted about a quarter. After that, I caught bits and pieces.
• Jameer Nelson was very aggressive, attacking the Bobcats. I think he'll be Oralndo's "closer" this year rather than Vince Carter, as some have suggested.
• Dwight Howard seems like an after-thought on offense at times. He's dominant on defense but it is as if they only go to him if their perimeter game is faltering. If, at some point in this post season, Orlando needs to go to him often (say, against the Cavs) he may or may not be ready because of the neglect now.

Eating Crow: The Portland Trailblazers

I had written them off before they played a single game. But they really showed me in game 1 against the Suns. Andre Miller, the best point guard of the last decades that nobody talks about, is running that offense well. They are still rough around the edges, and they are making youthful mistakes. But the Suns better be worried. They better take them seriously.

2010 Playoffs: Day 1 Thoughts

Cavs / Bulls Game 1:

• Picked it up in the fourth. Enough time to see the Bulls get the once huge Cavs lead down to seven, and then fail to score on a few trips down, giving the Cavs the opportunity to regroup and pull away.

Nuggets / Jazz Game 1:

• I watched most of this game and really enjoyed it. It was sloppy early, but competitive throughout, with some exceptional performaces.
• J.R. Smith is unreliable as a starter (with a bad attitude to boot), but when he gets hot, it's scary. He put this game away, breaking open a tight contest with his set of threes back-to-back-to-back.
• Carmelo's jay was money all game long. 'Melo's been good for years and he has had several great single playoff game performances. He hasn't been able to put together a great playoff performance set yet. This year, like last year, he has a great team around him. How far will he take them?
• Boozer's jumper was on all game as well. I don't personally like the guy, but he looked really good out there.
• Deron Williams started slow but made up for it with his play after he warmed up.
• What a freak injury to Mehmet Okur. Torn achilles? Even on replay, it just looked like he slipped. I thought "Where's the injury?" as I watched. I figured he just tweaked his ankle.
• The Jazz looked under-manned during this game. Without Okur, I don't see how they do it now. I had already picked the Nuggets. Now I'm pretty sure.

Celtics/Heat Game 1:

• I watched a lot of this game, including the crazy conclusion.
• I wonder what was going through KG's mind. He was upset before Q Richardson said a word. He bumped Q and then once they got into it, totally lost it. He was rightfully ejected and rightfully suspended for the next game.
• Wade's performance was uneven as he was not clutch late, with mistakes and badly missed shots that were a lot of the reason why the Heat faltered.
• Despite what I just said, Wade was by far the best thing his team had going. O'Neal and Beasley crapped the bed and it was amazing that the Heat kept it close and even held decent leads for stretches of the game.
• Even this diminished Celtics team has an above average defense. The Heat slammed into that defense early in the fourth.
• Great adjustments as your team crashed and burned Coach Spolestra.
• As the Heat failed to score for minute after minute in the fourth, I remember wondering why Spolestra wasn't making changes.
• Big Baby Davis put in another strong playoff performance.
• I have no idea how game 2 will go. Both teams played so poorly. Losing Garnett should help the Heat, but their skill players have to show up.

Hawks/Bucks Game 1:

• I watched much of the first half. I have the second half on my TiVo to watch later.
• Brandon Jennings is a player you want to watch. He zips around the court at Allen Iverson speeds. He hit some crazy shots in the first half. I want to see how he got the rest of that 44 in the second half.
• Joe Johnson had his hands full covering Jennings.
• The Bucks defense made Josh Smith look like Tim Duncan in the post. Smith was abusing his defenders down low.
• Ideally, Al Hortford should be playing at power forward. He just isn't a center (He just plays one on television). Josh Smith should learn how to dribble the ball and play at the small forward spot. And Marvin Williams should learn how to sit on the bench. Regarding who should play center for the Hawks...probably somebody who isn't on their team right now.
• I don't think Mike Woodson is a very good coach.What I hear about him and see myself doesn't impress me.

Magic (2) versus Bobcats (7)

Upset Odds: 20:1

The Bobcats are an intriguing match-up for the Magic. However, I think the Bobcats will have a serious problem keeping up scoring.

The Magic are too good at both end of the court.

Prediction: Magic in 5

Suns (3) versus Trailblazers (6)

Upset Odds: 15-1

The Blazers don't have Roy, their best player. The Suns finished the season strong,

Prediction: Suns in 5

Blazers show heart. Win one at home.

Mavericks (2) versus Spurs (7)

Upset Odds: 3:1

Many are poo-poo-ing the Mavs as a legitamite contender. But they are. They have serious fire-power and several solid man to man defenders. Kidd gives them the floor leadership they need. Nowitzki is still in his prime. The Spurs have looked recently like a contender. But I'm not confident their pieces fit together effectively,

Prediction: Mavs in 6

The Spurs are old. But they have pride. And they will defended homecourt faily well.

Lakers (1) versus Thunder (8)

Upset Odds: 10:1

The Lakers have not shown championship form this year. Recently, they've looked downright beatable. But the Thunder have no depth. Durant, Green and Westbrook have to play strong in the same game five times to win the four they need to knock off the Lakers. For a young team new to the post season, it's a tall order. Lakers fans are rightfully concerned about this young, energetic team. The Lakers, who like to play at a moderate tempo, have to be concerned about  letting the pace get out of hand.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

The Lakers will lose one of the first two games. It will be a wake up call. But the Thunder will still win a home game, playing inspired ball for their home crowd.

My NBA Playoffs Bracketology (quick and dirty)

Divisional Round:
Lakers over Thunder
Nuggets over Jazz
Suns over Trailblazers
Mavericks over Spurs
Celtics over Heat
Cavs over Bulls
Hawks over Bucks
Magic over Bobcats

Conference Semi-Finals:
Lakers over Nuggets
Mavericks over Suns
Cavs over Celtics
Magic over Hawks

Conference Finals:
Mavericks over Lakers
Cavs over Magic

Finals:
Cavs over Mavericks

Denver(4) versus Utah(5)

Upset Odds: 2:1

The Jazz are beat up. Their second best player (Boozer) is hurt. Their do-everything glue guy (Kirilenko) is out for almost the entire series. How do the Jazz beat a team with as much fire-power as the Nuggets? The answer is to let the Nuggets beat themselves. Which they may do if you give them the room to do it. Both of these teams are limping into the playoffs (one mentally, one physically. This is going to be one ugly series, unless the Nuggets put it together and dominate.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

I think the Jazz know it isn't their year. They wrestle for one win, for pride and then pack it in.

Boston (4) versus Miami (5)

Upset Odds: 3:2

THE sexy upset pick of the first round. The Celtics look terrible, mentally and physically. They seem to be in a transition peroid. Not the place to be going into the playoffs. However, they have 3 hall of famers and a lot of pride. The Heat have Wade and the Undesireables. Really. The Heat are filled with players most teams do not want for the money they're paid. Even Beasley at 5 mil is a hard sell with his off-the-court woes.

Prediction: Celtics in 7

It's the Celtics-Bulls 2008-09 all over again. But game 7 won't be a dud.

Atlanta(3) versus Bucks (6)

Upset Odds: 40:1

It's a shame. The Bucks lost one of their two best players and that has sunk their chances of upsetting the Hawks. It's a shame because the Hawks are a mess. Joe Johnson has been sending smoke signals that he is going to bolt from the ATL this summer. It sometimes seems as though Coach Woodson has lost his team. The Hawks are vunerable. But the Bucks lack the firepower to take advantage.

Prediction: Hawks in five.

The Hawks will blow a game and hand the Bucks game 3 or game 4.

Cavaliers(1) versus Bulls (8)

UPSET ODDS: 20:1

The Bulls are a sexy upset pick because they tied the season series 2-2, the Cavs rested LeBron and generally shut it down for the last two games, and the Cavs have to re-integrate Shaq back into the line-up. But wait a minute. Look at the Bulls' roster. Then look at the Cavs' roster. The Cavs are not losing this series. If fact, I think they'll sweep. The Bulls' best players, Rose, Henrich and Deng, are each inconsistant (to varying degrees). They need to play well at once to take any games off the Cavs.

PREDICTION: Cavs in 4.

The Cavs could slip up once or twice, but my call is that they don't. To win this series, the Bulls need to win two of the first three games. But it is highly unlikely they will.

"Make a bet, lay it down"

I'm so confident the Cavs are winning the title this year, I made a bet with a co-worker taking the Cavs straight up versus the field. I think the Cavs are the clearest favorite since the 2000 Lakers.

The Laker Bandwagon

The Laker bandwagon has a surpising number of riders. I'm a Laker fan, and I'm not even on it. On the one hand, they are the defending champs, and Kobe still wants to win badly. But they haven't played well. Their defensive rotation is rusty, as is their offensive execution. They have a tough road to the finals, including likely series' with the Nuggets as well as the Mavericks. And if they get to the finals, their likely opponent is the beast of the East, the Cavs. The Lakers may be the second most likely team to win it all this year, but it is a distant second.

The NBA Playoffs Have Returned!

And so, I have returned to my oft-neglected nba blog. It is playoffs eve, and so I need to make my picks. This year, I'd like to try something "different" in making my picks. I'm going to give odds for each series, explain my thinking, and then give my prediction. That prediction will include the winner, and the number of games. Unlike some, I'm not going to hedge (or split the difference) on the number of games. I'm going to be bold with mine.