The 2011 Finals: Prediction

I wanted to make my prediction after doing my Finals preview, but tip-off is in one half hour. So, instead, I will make my prediction now with the basic reasons why. The preview will follow, probably posted after tip-off but before I've seen any of the game.

My pick is the Miami Heat, in six games. They will return to Miami for games 6 and 7 up 3-2 with two days rest. Loose and rested, they will take care of business at home.

The Dallas Mavericks could win because of their sophisticated offense that produces good looks for the role players and puts Nowitzki in spots he likes on the floor. And, their man-zone hybrid is well suited for a dribble penetration team like the Heat as long as Chandler anchors at center. Dallas is good enough to be the Heat (they did win both regular season games).

Each side has exploitable matchups, which I will go into further int he next post.

The Miami Heat will win the series because they have 2 of the best 3 players (and closers) on the floor. They have a strong team defense concept as well as some strong individual stoppers (several people to throw at Dirk, including LeBron and Haslem). Their offense still has chemistry issues, but it does create good shots for the Heat stars fairly often. Lastly, the Heat have home court advantage, which is particularly valuable in the Finals because of the 2-3-2 format. Home court advantage is also particularly useful this year because the Mavs' middle three games are played only a day apart (Sun-Tues-Thurs). If the Mavs don't win all three, they have to beat the Heat twice at home. The Heat have been threatened at home this post season, but have not lost a game.

These NBA Finals feel like a game of inches. A few big shots here or there could make the difference in any one game. And any one game could change the complexion of the series. Game 1 is a great opportunity for the Mavericks to steal, because their offense can be difficult to adjust to as it comes at you from so many different angles and utilizes such a variety of weapons. I expect the Mavericks to pick up an early lead and for the Heat to have to work from behind to win the game.