2010 Playoffs: Magic (2) versus Celtics (4) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

Rondo versus Jameer; Garnett versus Lewis; Howard versus Perkins; Carter versus Allen; Pierce versus Barnes. Any of these matchups could turn this series. The Celtics will not be able to defend one guy and let the rest of the opposing team beat them. Nelson, Howard or Carter could be the difference in any given game. Orlando has the same problem. Rondo, Garnett or Allen could turn any given game in the Celtics' favor. I left out Pierce because he has been inefficient in his scoring this post-season. But that could turn around for him.

I expect the Celtics to initially scheme against Jameer Nelson, and try to get the ball out of his hands. That will leave Carter with the responsibility of running the offense and making the right decisions. It sounds worse than it is. With one exception, Carter has performed well in the post-season, though with limited success.

On the other hand, I expect Orlando to play the Celtics straight, with Nelson on Rondo, and see how effective that is. And that's the question. Can Rondo reck havok with Orlando's defense as he did with the Cavaliers'? And if so, will Orlando cheat off Allen and/or Pierce as an adjustment?

I think SVG (Stan Van Gundy) plays him straight, even if he plays well. And as good as Rondo is, I don't think he beats the Magic.

Another X-Factor is whether Howard can stay out of foul trouble. But Gortat is a solid back-up. I don't think this is the difference, despite the possible loss of Howard's defense for some stretches.

Prediction: Magic in 7

If the Celtics can get up 3-2 going back to Boston, they'll win the series. But I think the Magic go up 3-2 going into game 6, lose that game, and then win game 7 at home.

I listed the odds as even because every game will be close, and a loss by either team at home could be crucial. Boston gets to play more physically at home and will be much more difficult to beat there. But Orlando is a good road team and Boston has already lost at home this post-season.