Monday, May 3, 2010

2010 NBA Playoffs: Suns (3) versus Spurs (7) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

With their amazing upset of the Mavs, the Spurs really want to make you believe in them. But going up against the Suns and their homecourt advantage, can we?

What's the key matchup? Hard to say. Tempting to say Duncan and Stoudemire, but I think that while Amare' has the young legs, Duncan is wily and smart. Amare's PER will be higher, but Duncan will keep it from getting out of hand. Nash and Parker/Hill duo? I think both sides of this equation will do damage. Hill may be able to hinder Nash's effectiveness, but I doubt significantly. I think the key is Richardson/Ginobili. If Richardson plays well: shoots well; attacks the basket; defends Ginobili competently, then the Suns win this series. The Spurs need one thing in particular from Ginobili: scoring. The Spurs need to keep up a prolific scoring team. Ginobili and Parker will be critical to that endevour(spelled wrong, I know).
The other key matchup is Coach Pop versus Coach Gentry. Popovich is going to throw some adjustments at Gentry and Gentry has to counter effectively or his team will suffer.
Frye and Jared Dudley, who were x-factors int he Blazers series, will be less effective here, against the well coached, experienced Spurs.

Neither team strong compels an endorsement from me. Each has their strengths. The series will swing wildly from one game to the next. The Suns' homecourt advantage may actually hurt them as they will likely drop game 1 or game 2 and need to steal one back in Texas.
I'm going with Coaching/Champion-Experience but it may be a sucker bet in this case. The Suns could very well run the Spurs out of the gym.
Spurs in 6

Spurs steal a game early and then protect home court. If I had picked the Suns, I would have said Suns in 7 with everybody protecting homecourt.

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