Upset Odds: 10:1
Pretty high odds for a 2 versus 3 seed, huh? Well, let's run through it. Orlando has homecourt advantage. Last year, Orlando didn't protect homecourt particularly well. But the Hawks are unlikely to take advantage of that because of how bad a road team they are.
Dwight Howard is a big matchup problem for the Hawks. However, if Horford can make some jumpers, maybe he can pull Howard away fromt he basket to limit his effectiveness on defense. Or, perhaps Horford and Josh Smith could get Howard in foul trouble. Howard has not had a good post-season yet. Now's the time for him to get it going on offense. It's a good matchup for that. He doesn't want to go into the next series cold against Shaq/Hickson/Varejao or Perkins/Garnett/Davis.
Jameer Nelson has been looking good this post-season. He's the clear leader of the offense. It goes how he goes. Will the Hawks leave Bibby, his counter-part, on him, or match him up with a bigger guard like Joe Johnson, as they did with Jennings?
Rashard Lewis could break the back of the Hawks, if Josh Smith leaves him open or otherwise gives him good looks. I'll be watching Smith to see how he deals with this defensive challenge.
Vince Carter looks the part of marginal role-player on this Orlando team. He's taking tons of shots, but not connecting at a good percentage. 1 for 17 from behind the arc doesn't cut it.
I've spent this post talking about the Magic because their performance will be the story of the series. They had a relatively easy first round opponent with a giant achilles heel (inability to score). Now, they face a legitimate playoff team that can score and defend, at least at times. I really don't like the Hawks in this series because they are an unfocused, undiciplined team filled with almost-stars. Joe Johnson, who wants and will almost surely get a max salary contract this summer, has not shown me that he can be the best player on a champion. Didn't he foul out of one of his first round series games with several minutes to go?
Prediction: Magic in 6
The Hawks will fall assbackwards into some wins, but Orlando wraps it up in Atlanta.
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