2010 NBA Playoffs: Celtics versus Lakers Brief Preview

Upset Odds (i.e. Celtics Win): 1:2 (I've been going these wrong the entire post-season - in reverse I think - oops)

Quietly, this is not a good match-up for the Celtics overall. In '08, missing their starting center, the Lakers competed in every game except one, losing considerable early leads in two of their loses (nobody will forget the 24 point lead in game 4) and winning two other games outright. Now, the Lakers have Bynum, who has value even if injured.

I may do a whole post about it but I will say it here, now: The 2010 Celtics are not better than the 2008 Celtics. They are worse. Their defense remains elite, but not dominant. The offensive may be slightly better, but insufficiently better to make up for loss of defensive ability. Meanwhile, the 2010 Lakers are clearly better than than the 2008 Lakers. The defense is better, and although the raw numbers don't show it, the offense runs better than it did two years ago. By that I mean the Lakers each better understand their roles and the offensive execution has improved.

Why do I give the Celtics decent odds despite being over-matched? For one, Celtics and Lakers intangibles. The Celtics are physical and psychological bullies. The talk shit, yell, bump, foul, scream, talk more shit. It's hard to ignore. It's worked before (on the 2008 Lakers, the 2010 Cavs, the 2010 Magic...), and it could work again. A Laker negative intanglible is their propensity for giving up big leads. Forget 2008, they did it at home against the Suns in game 5 then again in game 6 against the Suns. These were big almost 20 point leads, present well into the second half. The Celtics are unlikely to let them off the hook like the Suns did. Rondo could also single-handidly keep the Celtics in games when the rest of their offense stumbles. And at this level, with teams and players of this caliber, close games at the end could go either way.
Prediction: Lakers in 6

Let me be more specific. If the Lakers win game 1, I think Lakers in 6. However, if the Lakers lose game 1, it will be a much harder. Still, they will preservere and win in 7.