2010 NBA Draft: BOOMS and BUSTS Ground Rules

I'm going to call it. For every player in the first round, I'm going to put myself out there and declare, right now, what the future holds or could likely hold for them. I base my opinion here on their college numbers, scouting info I have read, and interviews I have listened to. I'm going common sense here, rather than some sort of advanced metric or insider information. With this stuff, I think common sense can get you pretty far.
My judgements here are not relative to draft position nor are they particularly specific. I'm not about to say, "John Wall will play in exacty four all-star games and win league MVP twice." Nor am I even saying "John Wall will be a regular in the All-Star Game."

I am not making relative judgements. At a high level, players from the draft will play out their careers and will either be remembered as good players, or crappy players. For example, though limited in ability, Udonis Haslem will be remembered as a good player. Emeka Okafor, despite the tons of money he has been paid, numerous opportunities he has been given and the stats he has accumulated, will be remembered as a scrub. That's what I'm talking about. Scrub, or not a scrub.

I am giving myself a middle ground. There are some players that will be initial considered to be scrubs. They will fail in ther first opportunity. But, for whatever reason, on their second try, or third try, the right situation occurs and/or they figure "it" out. The ship is righted and they lose the scrub label. Recent examples are JJ Reddick and Shannon Brown. Adam Morrison is still a scrub, but he may get one more chance to change that perception.

TERMINOLOGY:
BOOM: A "boom" will quickly begin developing, improving, and generally adjusting to the NBA and the team owners in question will breath a sigh of relief within a few months of the draft.
IMMEDIATE BUST: An "immediate bust" will not succeed with his first  team (unless they stubbornly give him shot after shot over several years, which usually doesn't happen - The axe comes after about two years or whenever the rookie contract gives ownership an out). However, this player shows enough that a second team, a team where the player really seems to be a good fit, gives him a shot. It works, and the player turns it around and builds a career. Sometimes this can take a third or fourth team.
*FOREVER BUST: A "forever bust" is a player that doesn't belong in the NBA. Either not enough of a combination of talent and natural ability and/or lacking the mentality to be productive with the assets they have. This player fails with the first team. He may get additional chances but will fail in them too. There is usually a mental component to forever busts, because few true scrubs are drafted high, especiaslly in 2010.

* I love this term :)

2010 NBA Playoffs: Jazz/Lakers Game 1 (Lakers win)

• Kobe and Gasol both give B+ games
• Lakers second team blows lead
• Boozer is a solid second banana, but is it "contract year thunder"?
• Kobe's 4th quarter is a classic
• Terrible ref-ing; Not just pro-Lakers as Gasol got absolutely mugged by Boozer late in the fourth

2010 Playoffs: Day 5 Thoughts

Bobcats @ Magic, Game 2:

• Didn't watch. Call me when the Bobcats win a game.

Spurs @ Mavericks, Game 2:

• Watched the first quarter and then TiVo hopped through much of the rest.
• Dallas looked rusty, like you would expect them to look at the beginning of a game 1.
• Tim Duncan and RJ led an early attack that scored points and got several Mavs in foul trouble.
• It was nice to see RJ play well. His game 1 showing was just sad. In game 2, he got it going early, found his shot, hustled and played with a lot of energy.
• Shawn Marion has looked out of shape all year. For a guy whose game relied greatly on athleticism, he isn't doing himself any favors putting on the extra weight. He used to be a beast on the boards, swiftly moving up and down the court, getting easy baskets and blocking shots. He's a shadow of that former self and I don't think he'll be in the league much longer.
• Nowitzki's shot wasn't falling but he kept on shooting, as he should. Nowitzki has a clear matchup advantage against McDyess, who covers him much of the game. McDyess is old and slow. Even with his limited mobility and athleticism, Dirk should be able to shoot over and go around McDyess. Instead, we get performances like this, where Nowitzki struggles against an inferior defender.

2010 Playoffs: Day 4 Thoughts

Thunder @ Lakers, Game 2:

• Watched most of the second half.
• Green and Harden were non-factors (or a negative factor in the case of Green, who shot 2-11 from the field). To be fair to Harden, he was on the floor for less than 10 minutes.
• This was a close game decided by a better crunch-time play by the Lakers, except for the final moments, when the Lakers nearly gave it away.
• The gunner is back! Kobe had a big game, shooting without the hesitation I saw in Game 1. He wasn't shooting well, but he got to the line and made up for it there.
• Durant and Westbrook were the only Thunder playing well. They will have to continue to do so if they want to make it a series.

No comments on these games:
Bucks @ Hawks, Game 2
Heat @ Celtics, Game 2
Trailblazers @ Suns, Game 2

2010 NBA Playoffs: Celtics versus Lakers Brief Preview

Upset Odds (i.e. Celtics Win): 1:2 (I've been going these wrong the entire post-season - in reverse I think - oops)

Quietly, this is not a good match-up for the Celtics overall. In '08, missing their starting center, the Lakers competed in every game except one, losing considerable early leads in two of their loses (nobody will forget the 24 point lead in game 4) and winning two other games outright. Now, the Lakers have Bynum, who has value even if injured.

I may do a whole post about it but I will say it here, now: The 2010 Celtics are not better than the 2008 Celtics. They are worse. Their defense remains elite, but not dominant. The offensive may be slightly better, but insufficiently better to make up for loss of defensive ability. Meanwhile, the 2010 Lakers are clearly better than than the 2008 Lakers. The defense is better, and although the raw numbers don't show it, the offense runs better than it did two years ago. By that I mean the Lakers each better understand their roles and the offensive execution has improved.

Why do I give the Celtics decent odds despite being over-matched? For one, Celtics and Lakers intangibles. The Celtics are physical and psychological bullies. The talk shit, yell, bump, foul, scream, talk more shit. It's hard to ignore. It's worked before (on the 2008 Lakers, the 2010 Cavs, the 2010 Magic...), and it could work again. A Laker negative intanglible is their propensity for giving up big leads. Forget 2008, they did it at home against the Suns in game 5 then again in game 6 against the Suns. These were big almost 20 point leads, present well into the second half. The Celtics are unlikely to let them off the hook like the Suns did. Rondo could also single-handidly keep the Celtics in games when the rest of their offense stumbles. And at this level, with teams and players of this caliber, close games at the end could go either way.
Prediction: Lakers in 6

Let me be more specific. If the Lakers win game 1, I think Lakers in 6. However, if the Lakers lose game 1, it will be a much harder. Still, they will preservere and win in 7.

2010 Playoffs: Magic (2) versus Celtics (4) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

Rondo versus Jameer; Garnett versus Lewis; Howard versus Perkins; Carter versus Allen; Pierce versus Barnes. Any of these matchups could turn this series. The Celtics will not be able to defend one guy and let the rest of the opposing team beat them. Nelson, Howard or Carter could be the difference in any given game. Orlando has the same problem. Rondo, Garnett or Allen could turn any given game in the Celtics' favor. I left out Pierce because he has been inefficient in his scoring this post-season. But that could turn around for him.

I expect the Celtics to initially scheme against Jameer Nelson, and try to get the ball out of his hands. That will leave Carter with the responsibility of running the offense and making the right decisions. It sounds worse than it is. With one exception, Carter has performed well in the post-season, though with limited success.

On the other hand, I expect Orlando to play the Celtics straight, with Nelson on Rondo, and see how effective that is. And that's the question. Can Rondo reck havok with Orlando's defense as he did with the Cavaliers'? And if so, will Orlando cheat off Allen and/or Pierce as an adjustment?

I think SVG (Stan Van Gundy) plays him straight, even if he plays well. And as good as Rondo is, I don't think he beats the Magic.

Another X-Factor is whether Howard can stay out of foul trouble. But Gortat is a solid back-up. I don't think this is the difference, despite the possible loss of Howard's defense for some stretches.

Prediction: Magic in 7

If the Celtics can get up 3-2 going back to Boston, they'll win the series. But I think the Magic go up 3-2 going into game 6, lose that game, and then win game 7 at home.

I listed the odds as even because every game will be close, and a loss by either team at home could be crucial. Boston gets to play more physically at home and will be much more difficult to beat there. But Orlando is a good road team and Boston has already lost at home this post-season.

2010 Playoffs: Celtics @ Cavaliers, Game 5

• Shocking passiveness by LeBron during large chunks of the game. During the first half 16-0 run by Boston, LeBron took, I think, one shot (the run got to 8-0 before LeBron was put into the game to staunch the bleeding). Generally speaking, LeBron may have felt like he needed to get the team involved early in the game, but he wasn't even moving around to divert attention or penetrating and dishing. He spent many possessions standing around on the perimeter. And once the team started to struggle, his response was slow and tenative. As many others have pointed out, LeBron has the terrible habit of settling for jumpshots when he is frustrated/not playign well. This is exactly the wrong this to do.
• Terrible offensive game plan by Mike Brown. First, I assume that it was his schemes that put LeBron on the perimeter, thirty feet from the basket. Against poor defenses, LeBron can dominate getting the ball out there. But Boston has one of the best perimeter defenses, one built to stop dribble penetration. Brown clearly has not adjusted for this. Second, wither JJ HIckson? In the minutes he has gotten in this series, Hickson has been effective. Yet he has been given almost no run in the last two Cavs losses. The Hickson-Jamison-James frontcourt has been very effective this year for the Cavs. Why aren't the Cavs pushing the tempo against a much older to team whose best players have diminished endurance? Third, Brown's love affair with Shaq-in-the-low-post sometimes produces results (as in this game) but it always clogs up the lane and slows down the game's tempo (both of which favor the Celtics' defensive scheme - you know they hope Brown continues this). Has Brown so quickly forgotten how effective his team was when Shaq was injured?
• Another bad game from Mo Williams. Lots of badly timed shots. Takes touches away (at the worst time) from LeBron on offense. Williams seems to be a bad fit to play with LeBron.
• Masterful shooting by Ray Allen. His first three pointer after the half was bananas. A catch and shoot from the corner that had no business going in.
• With his teammates playing well early, Rondo, to his credit, didn't force anything, despite all of the talk after last game. Maybe LeBron felt the same way (even though it wasn't necessarily true?). Rondo turned it on in the second half, making a big difference while putting up his numbers.
• Pierce got a break defending LeBron in the first half. LeBron spent a ton of time standing around, which gave Pierce a breather on the defensive end and therefore more energy on the offensive end.
• Pierce ended up with 21 points, but he still isn't shooting well. It took him 21 shots. Good all around game though. Led his team in rebounds.
• Garnett was money early. He hit jay after jay over Jamison. Jamison isn't the type of physical defender that would give Garnett problems. His defense is average at best and non-aggressive. Varejao is better suited to play against Garnett.
• By the way, LeBron didn't defend Rondo much in the game, despite the talk to the contrary.

Orlando Magic (2) versus Atlanta Hawks (3) Preview

Upset Odds: 10:1

Pretty high odds for a 2 versus 3 seed, huh? Well, let's run through it. Orlando has homecourt advantage. Last year, Orlando didn't protect homecourt particularly well. But the Hawks are unlikely to take advantage of that because of how bad a road team they are.

Dwight Howard is a big matchup problem for the Hawks. However, if Horford can make some jumpers, maybe he can pull Howard away fromt he basket to limit his effectiveness on defense. Or, perhaps Horford and Josh Smith could get Howard in foul trouble. Howard has not had a good post-season yet. Now's the time for him to get it going on offense. It's a good matchup for that. He doesn't want to go into the next series cold against Shaq/Hickson/Varejao or Perkins/Garnett/Davis.

Jameer Nelson has been looking good this post-season. He's the clear leader of the offense. It goes how he goes. Will the Hawks leave Bibby, his counter-part, on him, or match him up with a bigger guard like Joe Johnson, as they did with Jennings?

Rashard Lewis could break the back of the Hawks, if Josh Smith leaves him open or otherwise gives him good looks. I'll be watching Smith to see how he deals with this defensive challenge.

Vince Carter looks the part of marginal role-player on this Orlando team. He's taking tons of shots, but not connecting at a good percentage. 1 for 17 from behind the arc doesn't cut it.

I've spent this post talking about the Magic because their performance will be the story of the series. They had a relatively easy first round opponent with a giant achilles heel (inability to score). Now, they face a legitimate playoff team that can score and defend, at least at times. I really don't like the Hawks in this series because they are an unfocused, undiciplined team filled with almost-stars. Joe Johnson, who wants and will almost surely get a max salary contract this summer, has not shown me that he can be the best player on a champion. Didn't he foul out of one of his first round series games with several minutes to go?

Prediction: Magic in 6

The Hawks will fall assbackwards into some wins, but Orlando wraps it up in Atlanta.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Suns (3) versus Spurs (7) Preview

Upset Odds: Even

With their amazing upset of the Mavs, the Spurs really want to make you believe in them. But going up against the Suns and their homecourt advantage, can we?

What's the key matchup? Hard to say. Tempting to say Duncan and Stoudemire, but I think that while Amare' has the young legs, Duncan is wily and smart. Amare's PER will be higher, but Duncan will keep it from getting out of hand. Nash and Parker/Hill duo? I think both sides of this equation will do damage. Hill may be able to hinder Nash's effectiveness, but I doubt significantly. I think the key is Richardson/Ginobili. If Richardson plays well: shoots well; attacks the basket; defends Ginobili competently, then the Suns win this series. The Spurs need one thing in particular from Ginobili: scoring. The Spurs need to keep up a prolific scoring team. Ginobili and Parker will be critical to that endevour(spelled wrong, I know).
The other key matchup is Coach Pop versus Coach Gentry. Popovich is going to throw some adjustments at Gentry and Gentry has to counter effectively or his team will suffer.
Frye and Jared Dudley, who were x-factors int he Blazers series, will be less effective here, against the well coached, experienced Spurs.

Neither team strong compels an endorsement from me. Each has their strengths. The series will swing wildly from one game to the next. The Suns' homecourt advantage may actually hurt them as they will likely drop game 1 or game 2 and need to steal one back in Texas.
I'm going with Coaching/Champion-Experience but it may be a sucker bet in this case. The Suns could very well run the Spurs out of the gym.
Spurs in 6

Spurs steal a game early and then protect home court. If I had picked the Suns, I would have said Suns in 7 with everybody protecting homecourt.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Celtics/Cavs Game 1 (Cavs win)

• Celtics really blew it. Not just the game; I think that was their best chance to win this series. They have the matchups to keep it close, so it isn't over. But the Cavs won't lose game 2 after this scare, and then the pressure will be on the Celtics to keep it a series by winning at home. LeBron may smell blood and release a monster game to steal game 3 or 4. Its funny. Just an above average LeBron game, such as his performance in this game (35 pts on 25 shots; 7 rbs; 7 assists; dominant 4th quarter), is spectacular. So you have to keep that in perspective.  A "monster" game may not even be necessary to steal one in Boston if his teammates play well. 
• I thought Kendrick Perkins was big. O'Neal dwarfs him. And Shaq schooled him, too. Kendrick, stay at home. Make Shaq shoot over you.
• The Celtics' big four played well early, but faded down the stretch. Pierce, in particular, attacked at the start, with a chip on his shoulder. He was effective, then his game went sour. I was shocked to see that he ended up with only 13 points on 17 shots.
• Rasheed Wallace looked terrible. Just terrible.
• Strong game by Garnett. How many of those does he have in him? The Celtics need them.
• Rondo ended up four rebounds shy a triple double. But like his teammates, the best part of his game was the first half.
• Mo Williams' third quarter explosion may have saved the game for the Cavs. Boston continued to let him shoot after he got hot. Adjustment-FAIL.
• JJ Hickson, whom the commentators made a point of saying had not gotten much run in the previous series, got some run here and made the most of it, out-playing Jamison and Shaq. I think he got PT because Shaq got in foul trouble.

2010 NBA Playoffs: Lakers/Thunder Game 6 (Lakers win series)

• This was a seven game series disgused as a six game series. Somebody boxes out Gasol, the Lakers lose this game. Ibaka and Collison are the goats here.
• I love how everybody on the Thunder was so sure Kobe's shot is going in that they didn't box out. Gasol kept playing and got the game winning put-back with an easy look. It's like Kobe's the boogie man.
• Notch up another strong series-closing performance for Kobe Bryant. How mny of those does he have?
• As a Lakers fan, I gasp every time I see Ron Artest take a three point shot. I did in this game, on his shot with about a minute left in the fourth, and he was beyond wide open. It wasn't even close. Kobe was screaming and waving his hands for the ball as he was open on the wing. Artest didn't even look in his direction. I can laugh about it now because the Lakers won.
• Artest did an excellent job on Durant over the series. Durant may be the best scorer in the NBA now, but Artest made him expend a ton of energy and struggle at times. Despite Artest's offensive woes, it makes me wonder if the Lakers would have won the series with Ariza. For over a month, I've felt that the Lakers made a mistake with the Ariza, Artest swap. Not sure now. Will Artest continue to make a difference, or was this the highlight of his post season? His other best matchup, Carmelo, is going home for the summer.
• Loved Durant's heart. It was a tough game for him but he kept fighting.
• What a home-cooked series. Every Thunder home game, they have a massive FT advantage. Every Laker home game, the FTs are about even.

The NBA MVP Award: Why I Shouldn't Care

Lebron James is now the two-time NBA MVP. He deserves it unequivocally and I agree with ESPN's The Sports Guy (TSG) that it should have been unanimous. That's reason number 1 that I shouldn't care about the NBA MVP race every year. Every other reasonable candidate (non-center i.e. not D. Howard) could be replaced with LeBron and their team would become better. The toughest replace might be Wade, I think. LeBron's passing talent would be wasted on Wade's sh$$ty teammates. Here are some additional reasons why I shouldn't care about the NBA MVP Award:

• Wade, who has done for the second year straight what Nash did in 2006 (take a terrible team to the playoffs), was a non-factor in the MVP race. He was fifth, but waaay behind fourth place, D. Howard. Out of 123 ballots (each allows you to rank your top five), Wade's name only made it on to 51. That means 72 voters did not think he was one of the top 5 most valuable players in the L.
• Stephen Jackson got a fifth place vote (credit to TSG for this one).
• Carmelo Anthony got a second place vote ahead of Wade, Kobe and D. Howard (although it could be one of the three voters that gave D. Howard first place votes).
• Amare Stoudemire got three votes (fourth 2x and a fifth).
• Chris Bosh got a fifth place vote.
• Lack of post-season experience, not to mention success, doesn't matter. He's an awesome scorer that did himself and his team proud this post-season, but Kevin Durant hadn't played a single post-season game when the votes came in and he had the second highest voting points total. This includes 4 number 1 votes over LeBron James.
• Steve Nash got 49 voting points to Deron Williams' 7.

I wonder: if LeBron flames out again this year, and then averages a triple-double next year during the regular season, will he win MVP again? One thing that most back-to-back MVPs have had up until now: a championship ring before the second MVP award*. The exception are notable. LeBron joins the non-ring club with Steve Nash, Wilt (who got his first ring that Spring), Moses Malone (who also got his that Spring). With the exception of Nash, the no-ring back-to-backers were on teams with dominant regular season performances and high post-season expectations. Nash's Suns did much better than expected during the season (which is why he won), but only moderately well (3rd seed; 9 games off the first seed)**.

* Magic had 5 rings, Bird 2, Russell 4, Kareem 1, Jordan 1, Duncan 1

** To their credit, that 2006 Suns team got the conference finals, past Kobe's urregulars and the forever cursed Clippers.

2010 Playoffs: Lakers (1) versus Jazz (5) Preview

Upset Odds: 5:1

The big question in this series is whether the Lakers' D can prevent the easy baskets that the Jazz offense, run exceptionally well by Deron Williams, creates. It sunk the Nuggets with their undiciplined ways. The Lakers have an aggressive defensive rotation. If they don't hustle and play with a lot of energy, it breaks down and gives inferior offenses easy baskets. Will Fisher/Farmar be able to keep Deron away from the basket? Like the Thunder series, Kobe has an advantagious matchup at shooting guard. However, if he has to chase Deron, he'll have less energy at the other end of the floor. Boozer versus Gasol is an interesting contrast in styles. They do not match up well. Which will better take advantage of the mis-match at the offensive end? A big question for Utah is whether their young center can hang with Bynum. Personally, I am unsure how advantageous the matchup ultimately will be for the Lakers. This series will be closer than it should be, and I would not be shocked by an upset. Why? The Jazz are playin gto their potential. The effort is there and  they know how they win. The Lakers are not playing to their potential. They don't always bring the effort (hasn't been too bad though) and they win in fundamentally different ways from game to game. They're a great team on shaky ground.

Prediction: Lakers in 7

I do not think the Lakers will win game 6 in SLC, unless they are down 2-3 and desperate. The Lakers need to take the series by game 5 or there will be a game 7. I predict both teams protect homecourt to take it to seven games.

2010 Playoffs: Cavaliers (1) versus Celtics (4) Preview

Upset Odds: 8:1

I didn't give the Celtics enough credit in the first round (or did I giuve the Heat too much...no, too little to Celtics). Will I gave them too much here? The Celtics match up with the Cavs pretty well. Pierce will do a solid job on LeBron defensively, as good as anyone can. He may even get LeBron in foul trouble with a few flops. Garnett has slowed because of his injury, but his tenacity and experience will aid him against Jamison. If Rondo plays well, he can hang with Mo Williams. The Perkins-O'Neal matchup will be interesting. O'Neal's veteran guile may be the difference. On the other hand, LeBron is playing out of his mind, somehow improving on his already ridiculous regular season stats. He has had some offensive duds (maybe just one, I don't remember) this post-season, which gives the Celtics hope. But LeBron could prematurely end this series with big game or two in Boston. Also, the Celtics bench is weak sauce, esp. compared to the Cavs bench. If the series stretches on, big minutes may catch up with the "big three".
Prediction: Cavs in 6

The Celtics hold serve in games three and four and then drop two straight after the Cavs get it together. Or, the Celtics steal one and then the Cavs steal one back. Either way, a 2-2 series after 4 games, then the Cavs take charge.

2010 Playoffs: Day 2 Thoughts

Thunder/Lakers Game 1:

• I saw most of this game. However, I watched most of the first half after having seen the second half.
• Durant is getting superstar calls. Artest was flagged for at least two that were closer to steals than fouls.
• Durant did not have a very good game. He did not shoot well. Yet he still had over twenty points. Same story for Kobe.
• Overall, Artest did a solid job defending Durant. A lot of Durant's troubles were probably playoff jitters, but Artest stayed with him and played him tough. Didn't make things easy.
• Despite taking his normal number of shots, Kobe seemed hesitant to take shots for stretches of the game. He dribbled about, trying to draw attention to himself, but not taking advantage of the looks he was being given. Having said that, near the end of the game, with the Lakers nursing just a four point lead, Kobe took one of his heavily contested "hero" shots. It missed and it wasn't particularly close. It was a blemish on an otherwise solid crutch time performance.
• Shannon Brown made some nice shots. The Lakers are going to need him.
• Russell Westbrook was the bright spot of an otherwise dim Thunder performance. Westbrook has to exploit the woeful Laker PG defense for the Thunder to win this series.
• The Thunder need better performances from Durant and Jeff Green to have a chance. Green needs to be much better.
• I was wondering why James Harden wasn't starting the game for the Thunder. Then I saw him play.

Trail Blazers/Suns Game 1:

• I watched a lot of the second half, including the nail biting conclusion. Quite enjoyable.
• LaMarcus Aldridge is the key to the Blazers' success. He's the best weapon in their arsonal (without Roy), the man Miller needs to feed "early and often". He had some good moments late and got the better of Stoudamire several times.
• Speaking of Stoudamire, he's bringing the fiery, explosive version of himself that can be so impressive. But his game is still primarily instinctual and he sometimes misses the little things that can be so big, like boxing out. His failure to keep tabs on Aldridge late hurt the Suns late int he game. 
• I did not like Nash's last shot. I guess he thought it was the best one he could get. Watch him dribble down court, I knew he was going to take it.

Spurs/Mavericks Game 1:

• I watched bits and pieces and some of the fourth quarter. I have the game on TiVo. I may try to watch a bit more of it.
• Dirk was absolute money from the field and the line. I criticize Dirk for what he doesn't do well. But there is no doubt that what he does well, he does very well (shoot).
• Kidd does that thing that great players do. He keeps on working at his game, no matter his age. His three point shot is the latest example.

Magic/Bobcats Game 1:

• I starting watching when the game stated, until I got tired of watching the Bobcats try to score. I think I lasted about a quarter. After that, I caught bits and pieces.
• Jameer Nelson was very aggressive, attacking the Bobcats. I think he'll be Oralndo's "closer" this year rather than Vince Carter, as some have suggested.
• Dwight Howard seems like an after-thought on offense at times. He's dominant on defense but it is as if they only go to him if their perimeter game is faltering. If, at some point in this post season, Orlando needs to go to him often (say, against the Cavs) he may or may not be ready because of the neglect now.

Eating Crow: The Portland Trailblazers

I had written them off before they played a single game. But they really showed me in game 1 against the Suns. Andre Miller, the best point guard of the last decades that nobody talks about, is running that offense well. They are still rough around the edges, and they are making youthful mistakes. But the Suns better be worried. They better take them seriously.

2010 Playoffs: Day 1 Thoughts

Cavs / Bulls Game 1:

• Picked it up in the fourth. Enough time to see the Bulls get the once huge Cavs lead down to seven, and then fail to score on a few trips down, giving the Cavs the opportunity to regroup and pull away.

Nuggets / Jazz Game 1:

• I watched most of this game and really enjoyed it. It was sloppy early, but competitive throughout, with some exceptional performaces.
• J.R. Smith is unreliable as a starter (with a bad attitude to boot), but when he gets hot, it's scary. He put this game away, breaking open a tight contest with his set of threes back-to-back-to-back.
• Carmelo's jay was money all game long. 'Melo's been good for years and he has had several great single playoff game performances. He hasn't been able to put together a great playoff performance set yet. This year, like last year, he has a great team around him. How far will he take them?
• Boozer's jumper was on all game as well. I don't personally like the guy, but he looked really good out there.
• Deron Williams started slow but made up for it with his play after he warmed up.
• What a freak injury to Mehmet Okur. Torn achilles? Even on replay, it just looked like he slipped. I thought "Where's the injury?" as I watched. I figured he just tweaked his ankle.
• The Jazz looked under-manned during this game. Without Okur, I don't see how they do it now. I had already picked the Nuggets. Now I'm pretty sure.

Celtics/Heat Game 1:

• I watched a lot of this game, including the crazy conclusion.
• I wonder what was going through KG's mind. He was upset before Q Richardson said a word. He bumped Q and then once they got into it, totally lost it. He was rightfully ejected and rightfully suspended for the next game.
• Wade's performance was uneven as he was not clutch late, with mistakes and badly missed shots that were a lot of the reason why the Heat faltered.
• Despite what I just said, Wade was by far the best thing his team had going. O'Neal and Beasley crapped the bed and it was amazing that the Heat kept it close and even held decent leads for stretches of the game.
• Even this diminished Celtics team has an above average defense. The Heat slammed into that defense early in the fourth.
• Great adjustments as your team crashed and burned Coach Spolestra.
• As the Heat failed to score for minute after minute in the fourth, I remember wondering why Spolestra wasn't making changes.
• Big Baby Davis put in another strong playoff performance.
• I have no idea how game 2 will go. Both teams played so poorly. Losing Garnett should help the Heat, but their skill players have to show up.

Hawks/Bucks Game 1:

• I watched much of the first half. I have the second half on my TiVo to watch later.
• Brandon Jennings is a player you want to watch. He zips around the court at Allen Iverson speeds. He hit some crazy shots in the first half. I want to see how he got the rest of that 44 in the second half.
• Joe Johnson had his hands full covering Jennings.
• The Bucks defense made Josh Smith look like Tim Duncan in the post. Smith was abusing his defenders down low.
• Ideally, Al Hortford should be playing at power forward. He just isn't a center (He just plays one on television). Josh Smith should learn how to dribble the ball and play at the small forward spot. And Marvin Williams should learn how to sit on the bench. Regarding who should play center for the Hawks...probably somebody who isn't on their team right now.
• I don't think Mike Woodson is a very good coach.What I hear about him and see myself doesn't impress me.

Magic (2) versus Bobcats (7)

Upset Odds: 20:1

The Bobcats are an intriguing match-up for the Magic. However, I think the Bobcats will have a serious problem keeping up scoring.

The Magic are too good at both end of the court.

Prediction: Magic in 5

Suns (3) versus Trailblazers (6)

Upset Odds: 15-1

The Blazers don't have Roy, their best player. The Suns finished the season strong,

Prediction: Suns in 5

Blazers show heart. Win one at home.

Mavericks (2) versus Spurs (7)

Upset Odds: 3:1

Many are poo-poo-ing the Mavs as a legitamite contender. But they are. They have serious fire-power and several solid man to man defenders. Kidd gives them the floor leadership they need. Nowitzki is still in his prime. The Spurs have looked recently like a contender. But I'm not confident their pieces fit together effectively,

Prediction: Mavs in 6

The Spurs are old. But they have pride. And they will defended homecourt faily well.

Lakers (1) versus Thunder (8)

Upset Odds: 10:1

The Lakers have not shown championship form this year. Recently, they've looked downright beatable. But the Thunder have no depth. Durant, Green and Westbrook have to play strong in the same game five times to win the four they need to knock off the Lakers. For a young team new to the post season, it's a tall order. Lakers fans are rightfully concerned about this young, energetic team. The Lakers, who like to play at a moderate tempo, have to be concerned about  letting the pace get out of hand.

Prediction: Lakers in 6

The Lakers will lose one of the first two games. It will be a wake up call. But the Thunder will still win a home game, playing inspired ball for their home crowd.

My NBA Playoffs Bracketology (quick and dirty)

Divisional Round:
Lakers over Thunder
Nuggets over Jazz
Suns over Trailblazers
Mavericks over Spurs
Celtics over Heat
Cavs over Bulls
Hawks over Bucks
Magic over Bobcats

Conference Semi-Finals:
Lakers over Nuggets
Mavericks over Suns
Cavs over Celtics
Magic over Hawks

Conference Finals:
Mavericks over Lakers
Cavs over Magic

Finals:
Cavs over Mavericks

Denver(4) versus Utah(5)

Upset Odds: 2:1

The Jazz are beat up. Their second best player (Boozer) is hurt. Their do-everything glue guy (Kirilenko) is out for almost the entire series. How do the Jazz beat a team with as much fire-power as the Nuggets? The answer is to let the Nuggets beat themselves. Which they may do if you give them the room to do it. Both of these teams are limping into the playoffs (one mentally, one physically. This is going to be one ugly series, unless the Nuggets put it together and dominate.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5

I think the Jazz know it isn't their year. They wrestle for one win, for pride and then pack it in.

Boston (4) versus Miami (5)

Upset Odds: 3:2

THE sexy upset pick of the first round. The Celtics look terrible, mentally and physically. They seem to be in a transition peroid. Not the place to be going into the playoffs. However, they have 3 hall of famers and a lot of pride. The Heat have Wade and the Undesireables. Really. The Heat are filled with players most teams do not want for the money they're paid. Even Beasley at 5 mil is a hard sell with his off-the-court woes.

Prediction: Celtics in 7

It's the Celtics-Bulls 2008-09 all over again. But game 7 won't be a dud.

Atlanta(3) versus Bucks (6)

Upset Odds: 40:1

It's a shame. The Bucks lost one of their two best players and that has sunk their chances of upsetting the Hawks. It's a shame because the Hawks are a mess. Joe Johnson has been sending smoke signals that he is going to bolt from the ATL this summer. It sometimes seems as though Coach Woodson has lost his team. The Hawks are vunerable. But the Bucks lack the firepower to take advantage.

Prediction: Hawks in five.

The Hawks will blow a game and hand the Bucks game 3 or game 4.

Cavaliers(1) versus Bulls (8)

UPSET ODDS: 20:1

The Bulls are a sexy upset pick because they tied the season series 2-2, the Cavs rested LeBron and generally shut it down for the last two games, and the Cavs have to re-integrate Shaq back into the line-up. But wait a minute. Look at the Bulls' roster. Then look at the Cavs' roster. The Cavs are not losing this series. If fact, I think they'll sweep. The Bulls' best players, Rose, Henrich and Deng, are each inconsistant (to varying degrees). They need to play well at once to take any games off the Cavs.

PREDICTION: Cavs in 4.

The Cavs could slip up once or twice, but my call is that they don't. To win this series, the Bulls need to win two of the first three games. But it is highly unlikely they will.

"Make a bet, lay it down"

I'm so confident the Cavs are winning the title this year, I made a bet with a co-worker taking the Cavs straight up versus the field. I think the Cavs are the clearest favorite since the 2000 Lakers.

The Laker Bandwagon

The Laker bandwagon has a surpising number of riders. I'm a Laker fan, and I'm not even on it. On the one hand, they are the defending champs, and Kobe still wants to win badly. But they haven't played well. Their defensive rotation is rusty, as is their offensive execution. They have a tough road to the finals, including likely series' with the Nuggets as well as the Mavericks. And if they get to the finals, their likely opponent is the beast of the East, the Cavs. The Lakers may be the second most likely team to win it all this year, but it is a distant second.

The NBA Playoffs Have Returned!

And so, I have returned to my oft-neglected nba blog. It is playoffs eve, and so I need to make my picks. This year, I'd like to try something "different" in making my picks. I'm going to give odds for each series, explain my thinking, and then give my prediction. That prediction will include the winner, and the number of games. Unlike some, I'm not going to hedge (or split the difference) on the number of games. I'm going to be bold with mine.