It has now been widely reported (including twitters by the player himself) that Ron Artest will sign with the Lakers.
The Deal - Reportedly, it is a three year deal worth about 18 million. I've also heard that it's the Mid-Level Exception, about $5.9 million per, for anywhere from 3 to 5 years.
The Lakers' Free Agency Picture - The Lakers have a new starting SF, and Trever Ariza will not be a Laker next year. Somebody else will have the honor for overpaying him based on potential and a strong play-off run. Houston is an early candidate. Also, the Laker's have the money resign Odom for around $10 million, since they won't be overpaying Ariza and they didn't give Artest too much. If Odom really wants to stay, he'll get a reasonable offer to.
The NBA's Free Agency Picture - The Lakers have upped the ante for the 2009-2010 season. The contenders (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio, Denver, Portland, Dallas maybe) may feel pressure to makes moves to keep pace. Ariza hops onto the open market in earnest and could see a considerable payday. I wouldn't be shocked to see him get 5 years, $50 million. The non-contenders may (should) feel even more dis-heartened and really look ahead to next year's free-agency period and 2011 and 2012 seasons.
Was It A Good Deal for the Lakers? - From a talent stand-point, it's a steal. Artest does most of what Ariza did (outside shooting, man to man defense) and some things better (rebounding, overall scoring ability). Ariza is much younger, and much faster but not as good overall right now. On the other hand, by making this deal, the Laker's have upset the chemistry of the team. Win or lose, this is a different Laker team. There is risk for anybody by not standing pat on the roster that got you the 'chip. Artest's nature (personality, aggresive play-style) only exacerbates that risk to the chemistry. Then again, coaching Artest might be an incentive for Phil Jackson to coach another year.
The Inside Scoop - Ariza's agent is David Lee, the guy that got the Lakers to give Bynum that 4-year, $57 million contract that they are regreting right now (and asked for even more). I doubt the Buss family relished the idea of playing tug-o-war with Lee in order to ultimately over-pay one of his clients.
Signing Grade - (B+)
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
NBA Free Agency Period Preview - Summer 2009
Summertime is here, and with it, another NBA off-season begins. NBA GMs find money / cap room burning a hole in their pocket and every free agent waits by the fax machine for the offers to roll in. In this preview, I'm going to take a look at the usual suspects i.e. this year's free agency crop. As there are over a hundred free agents, I decided to create some categories of free agents and discuss them in those groups.
Will Make His Team Pay - These guys aren't likely to be going anywhere because they are a good fit with their team, the fans love them, and the teams in question recognize these facts. Also, the player likes where he is and is willing to take a littel less to stay there. The Lakers have two of these guys, Kobe Bryant and Trever Ariza. I debated putting Lamar Odom in this category, but, despite his talent, he isn't a great fit and the fans have mixed feelings, to put it simply. Kobe will get every dime he asks for, and Ariza has the leverage to be paid at a premium. The Lakers need to offer Ariza a decent amount, at least 6+ million so as to not insult him. However, they must be careful not to overpay him. I think they settle at about 8 million per, which is a premium but reasonable. I'm putting Jason Kidd here because he is a very good fit with Dallas and I think well liked. However, Kidd is shopping himself around to push his price up as this will be his last major contract. I wonder if Cuban will play hardball like he did with Steve Nash? Kidd will get offered about 8 million per, but if I have under-estimated his greed and over-estimated his desire to play for a winner, he could end up in the next category making 10+ million on a bad team.
Will Be Overpaid - These guys are selling themselves to the highest bidder, and they have just enough talent (or HYPE) for somebody to overpay them. Hedu Turkoglu is the only guy in this group that is actually worth overpaying to pull away from his team. He proved that he can be the closer for a championship-caliber team and play physical, if not fleet-footed defense. A fair price for his skills is maybe 12 million per, but he'll get 14 million per to leave Orlando. Ben Gordon is a hot and cold gunner that pushed his stock up with big shots in the Boston series. However, he hasn't proven that he is dependable but somebody will give him 10+ million to launch a ton of shots for them. He isn't worth it. Chris Anderson is another guy that pushed his stock up with some big plays in the play-offs. But that doesn't change the one-dimensional nature of his game. At best, he's a seventh man that should make maybe 2 million per. But somebody is going to give him 5+ million per. Glen "Big Baby" Davis also had an excellent play-offs in 2009, filling in for the injured Garnett. My opinion, however, is that he is immature and when overpaid and removed from that environment that he flurished in, he will turn into Oliver Miller. Somebody will give him 8-10 million per, when he is actually a big risk. Carlos Boozer has elected to wait until next year for free agency. I'm sure somebody will overpay for him then. Why do you think he waited?
Will Make You Regret Signing Them - These guys should be avoided at all cost. If your team employs them, cut them. Don't pay them a dime. They aren't as good as they used to be but they still have all of the baggage. They are Rasheed Wallace (uncoachable), Shawn Marion (premadonna that doesn't care about winning), Allen Iverson (uncoachable), Ricky Davis (knucklehead), Ron Artest (uncoachable), Stephon Marbury (bad guy), and Chris Wilcox (knucklehead). Ron Artest may work out on the right team, with the right coach and right players to reign him in, but those teams (Boston, LA Lakers) can't afford him.
Ran out of time on this post. I will be posting comments as deals are made.
Will Make His Team Pay - These guys aren't likely to be going anywhere because they are a good fit with their team, the fans love them, and the teams in question recognize these facts. Also, the player likes where he is and is willing to take a littel less to stay there. The Lakers have two of these guys, Kobe Bryant and Trever Ariza. I debated putting Lamar Odom in this category, but, despite his talent, he isn't a great fit and the fans have mixed feelings, to put it simply. Kobe will get every dime he asks for, and Ariza has the leverage to be paid at a premium. The Lakers need to offer Ariza a decent amount, at least 6+ million so as to not insult him. However, they must be careful not to overpay him. I think they settle at about 8 million per, which is a premium but reasonable. I'm putting Jason Kidd here because he is a very good fit with Dallas and I think well liked. However, Kidd is shopping himself around to push his price up as this will be his last major contract. I wonder if Cuban will play hardball like he did with Steve Nash? Kidd will get offered about 8 million per, but if I have under-estimated his greed and over-estimated his desire to play for a winner, he could end up in the next category making 10+ million on a bad team.
Will Be Overpaid - These guys are selling themselves to the highest bidder, and they have just enough talent (or HYPE) for somebody to overpay them. Hedu Turkoglu is the only guy in this group that is actually worth overpaying to pull away from his team. He proved that he can be the closer for a championship-caliber team and play physical, if not fleet-footed defense. A fair price for his skills is maybe 12 million per, but he'll get 14 million per to leave Orlando. Ben Gordon is a hot and cold gunner that pushed his stock up with big shots in the Boston series. However, he hasn't proven that he is dependable but somebody will give him 10+ million to launch a ton of shots for them. He isn't worth it. Chris Anderson is another guy that pushed his stock up with some big plays in the play-offs. But that doesn't change the one-dimensional nature of his game. At best, he's a seventh man that should make maybe 2 million per. But somebody is going to give him 5+ million per. Glen "Big Baby" Davis also had an excellent play-offs in 2009, filling in for the injured Garnett. My opinion, however, is that he is immature and when overpaid and removed from that environment that he flurished in, he will turn into Oliver Miller. Somebody will give him 8-10 million per, when he is actually a big risk. Carlos Boozer has elected to wait until next year for free agency. I'm sure somebody will overpay for him then. Why do you think he waited?
Will Make You Regret Signing Them - These guys should be avoided at all cost. If your team employs them, cut them. Don't pay them a dime. They aren't as good as they used to be but they still have all of the baggage. They are Rasheed Wallace (uncoachable), Shawn Marion (premadonna that doesn't care about winning), Allen Iverson (uncoachable), Ricky Davis (knucklehead), Ron Artest (uncoachable), Stephon Marbury (bad guy), and Chris Wilcox (knucklehead). Ron Artest may work out on the right team, with the right coach and right players to reign him in, but those teams (Boston, LA Lakers) can't afford him.
Ran out of time on this post. I will be posting comments as deals are made.
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